The global long products market is overloaded with unprecedented protectionism and trade barriers, which creates deep uncertainty in addition to the existing challenges, Murat Cebecioglu, Chairman of the International Association of Rebar Exporters and Manufacturers (IREPAS), said at the 92nd meeting of the association held on April 27-29 in Athens.
From the point of view of long products manufacturers, tariffs seriously disrupt business planning, Kallanish understands. Chinese exports, including blanks, continue to put pressure on global prices due to their low cost. At the same time, Turkish factories are increasingly favoring blanks over scrap due to economic efficiency. The Gulf states have transformed from importers to exporters amid excess production capacity and uncertain domestic demand.
Raw material suppliers expect the coming year to be challenging, with market activity expected to decline significantly in the second half of 2025.
Jens Bjorkman, chairman of the raw materials suppliers committee, said that iron ore prices are hovering around $100 per tonne compared to $89 per tonne in September 2024 due to increased production at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. He noted that if China reduces steel production while global iron ore supplies increase, prices may decrease.
In other countries, the new German government may help ease some of the pressure on the market by potentially increasing steel production.
There is currently little demand for scrap in the EU, while the proposed export restrictions could further complicate the industry and trade between scrap suppliers and steel companies.
Looking to the future, EU plants are expected to gradually transition from blast furnace to electric arc technology over the next 5-10 years, leading to uneven demand for scrap metal. Although the EU's transition to a green economy appears to be delayed, no real changes are expected until at least 2030.
Bjorkman also expressed confidence that Canada and Mexico are unlikely to impose taxes on steel exports to the United States, as such restrictions would harm their own industries, given their dependence on trade with the United States.
Traders, for their part, do not see much hope for easing tariffs from the United States. The recent expansion of Section 232 tariffs, which now applies to countries previously exempt from duties, offers limited benefits.
F.
D. Baisal, chairman of the traders' committee, noted that only 18% of steel imports to the United States account for
