On Tuesday, October 14, the European hot-rolled steel (HRC) market found itself at a crossroads: buyers were evaluating more profitable offers from steel mills, which hope to achieve even greater price increases after new trade measures come into force in Europe, despite the apparent downturn. lack of real demand, Fastmarkets sources said.
On Monday, leading European steel producer ArcelorMittal announced an increase in supply prices for December (630 euros (729 dollars) per ton) and January (650 euros per ton), both during production and delivery.
According to sources, other plants in Europe are expected to follow suit soon.
One integrated company, a plant in Northern Europe, has set a target price of 640 euros per tonne for delivery in January.
But in Germany, factories have not yet announced any new offers, according to Fastmarkets.
"We need a few days to assess the situation," the message says. according to a source at the factory in Germany.
And buyers in Germany and the Benelux countries estimated the market value of December shipments of HRC at no more than 580-600 euros per ton from the factory.
"Significantly higher prices will not be achieved[for HRC]in December," a German buyer told Fastmarkets. "There is no shortage of materials – we have purchased more than enough for the fourth quarter, both domestically and through imports. But the situation is different in January.
"Prices[for HRC]are likely to continue to rise in early 2026 due to the lack of new imports. But the price of 650 euros[per tonne]seems too high at the moment," the buyer added.
Another source said that other factories are being cautious.
"There are still December volumes for sale, and at the moment there is no shortage of supplies," said the second buyer.
According to Fastmarkets calculations, the daily price index for hot-rolled steel for domestic consumption, exw in Northern Europe amounted to 588.75 euros per ton on October 14, which is 1.70 euros more than 587.05 euros per ton on October 13.
The index showed prices rose by 13.75 euros per ton week-on-week and by 8.75 euros per ton month-on-month.
But last week's fire at the ArcelorMittal facility in Fos-sur-Mer in southern France, which shut down one blast furnace, could have more serious market consequences, the sources said. The representative of the company could not specify how long the furnace could be idle, as well as provide estimates of potential production losses.
However, sources told Fastmarkets on Tuesday that the furnace in Fos-sur-Mer may not work for at least a month, while, according to some estimates, the downtime will be at least three months, which would halve steel production at the enterprise.
