The trade downturn continued in the European hot-rolled roll market, and market sources expect minor price changes before the end of the year, Fastmarkets reported on Friday, December 12.
Market participants across Europe reported another day of subdued activity, when both buyers and factories were in no particular hurry to sign new contracts for the supply of HRC. High inventories in service centers and distributors, as well as a convenient portfolio of orders at factories, led to the fact that trade was mainly hand-to-hand. Several sources reported that both sides are actually postponing significant decisions until January, when the market expects clearer signals after the slowdown in growth over the holidays and the full implementation of the carbon dioxide Emissions Control Mechanism (CBAM).
Sentiment across the region continued to be dominated by changes in trade regulation, in particular the upcoming introduction of CBAM. Market participants continued to digest the European Commission's recently adopted benchmarks and default emissions values, which several traders said would dramatically increase the cost of imports from January. Fastmarkets estimates that CBAM fees for importing HRC are approximately 23-540 euros ($26-632) per ton, depending on origin, making most import options unviable in the near term.
This shift was expected to give European businesses the opportunity to try to raise prices in the first quarter of 2026, although many expected demand-side constraints to limit any significant growth.
Northern Europe
Buyers from Northern Europe reported that stocks remain more than sufficient to meet short-term needs, and the availability of imported goods at ports has also eased any supply concerns for the time being.
Meanwhile, domestic factories sold out mostly of January and, in some cases, partially of February sales, which led to a small volume of sales in the spot market and a focus on negotiations on long-term contracts with manufacturers of original automotive equipment. As a result, reasonable prices in the region continued to fluctuate around 610-630 euros per ton from the plant, while offers were received at prices of 630-650 euros per ton from the plant, depending on the source and delivery time. Negotiations on larger volumes - 3,000 to 5,000 tons - could reach 600 euros per ton at the plant, but such volumes have rarely been discussed in recent weeks.
"No one buys large—tonnage cargo these days - the trade is mostly hand-to-hand," said a buyer from the Benelux region.
Daily hot-rolled steel price index
