The September EUROMETAL sentiment survey indicates a more positive outlook for the European steel distribution sector in the final quarter of 2026.
Although the assessment of current business activity remains generally neutral, the mood of market participants has improved compared to the summer months. A more confident outlook for the next three months is especially noticeable: many respondents expect an increase in activity and higher prices. At the same time, inventory expectations remain largely stable, which indicates a cautious approach by distributors to warehouse management.
Overall, the survey results indicate a strengthening of confidence in the fourth quarter, although a noticeable proportion of neutral responses shows that the market is still in no hurry to make overly bold forecasts.
Assessment of current activity
In September, the current market activity is perceived as neutral: the largest group of participants considers the situation stable. At the same time, there is a slight shift for the better compared to August. The share of those who rate activity above a neutral level has increased, while the number of responses about weaker dynamics has decreased.
This indicates stabilization with signs of gradual improvement rather than a full-fledged market recovery.
Forecast of future activity
Expectations for the next quarter remain positive. The largest share of respondents still expects an increase in activity in the next three months.
This attitude, which was already noted in August, persisted in September. At the same time, a significant part of the participants still expects the situation to remain unchanged, while negative forecasts remain in the minority.
Thus, the market enters the fourth quarter of 2026 with moderate optimism: confidence is growing, but so far it does not indicate a sharp upturn in business activity.
Stock forecast
Stock expectations are largely unchanged. Most distributors do not plan to significantly increase or reduce inventory volumes in the next three months.
The prevailing view is that inventory balances will remain approximately at the current level. This confirms the cautious strategy of inventory management and the desire to maintain them in line with real demand.
Price expectations
Price forecasts remain one of the strongest positive signals from the September survey.
The most common responses indicate an increase in prices over the next three months. At the same time, a significant part of the participants expect stability, and a relatively small number of respondents predict a decrease in prices.
Thus, the September data confirm a noticeable increase in price expectations and support a more favorable
