The EUROMETAL market Sentiment survey conducted in July 2025 shows growing pressure on the European steel distribution sector, accompanied by a deterioration in current activity estimates, a deterioration in forecasts for the upcoming quarter, and persistently negative price expectations. Meanwhile, the stock level has hardly changed, which indicates a cautious and defensive position of distributors.
Distributors seem to be responding pragmatically: they are keeping stocks at the same level, preparing for lower demand and continued pressure on margins. If economic conditions do not improve overall, current trends point to a challenging third quarter for the European steel production and metal distribution sector.
Assessment of current activity
July 2025 shows a marked decrease in sentiment compared to June. Sentiment dropped further below the neutral level, reflecting an increasingly negative assessment of current activity. This decline breaks the relatively steady trend seen in the first half of 2025 and signals growing discontent or reduced demand for real-time transactions.
Forecast of future activity
The forecast for the next quarter continues to decline, with July having the lowest forecasts in the world. for the last six months. The trend line has been showing a clear and consistent downward trajectory since May, confirming the deterioration of confidence in the short-term market recovery. Respondents are increasingly pessimistic about business conditions in the third quarter.
Stock forecast
Inventory expectations remain surprisingly stable, and most respondents still do not expect significant changes in inventory levels. This indicates an unwillingness to take risks and careful management of the supply chain, as distributors prefer not to overdo it in conditions of weak activity and pricing uncertainty. The constant size of the bubble and the central location indicate a wait-and-see approach.
Expectations of price changes
Attitudes towards pricing remain persistently negative after the sharp drop in May and the lack of recovery since then.
There was a slight increase in July compared to June, but it remains well below the neutral line, indicating that expectations for price growth are limited. The data indicates continued pricing instability in the market, and respondents likely expect oversupply or weak demand to put pressure on prices during the summer.
This analysis is based on the EUROMETAL Market Sentiment survey, which reflects the opinions of
