The latest EUROMETAL survey on steel market sentiment for October 2025 shows a mixed picture in the steel distribution sector in Europe. Although current activity appears to have stabilized, forward-looking indicators indicate that confidence in the recovery remains fragile.
After preliminary signs of improvement in September, the October results show that the sector remains cautious, without strong upward momentum and a prevailing wait-and-see approach.
Current activity remains stable
The assessment of current activity in October remained stable, remaining at the same level as in September. Despite the fact that the index remains moderately negative and is below the neutral line, this is the second month in a row without further deterioration — a potential sign that the market may have found its bottom after a sharp summer recession.
The short-term outlook is softening again
Expectations for activity in the next quarter decreased slightly in October, partially reversing the cautious optimism seen in September. Although this is not a drastic change, the trend reflects continued uncertainty and weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter.
Inventory strategies have not changed
The forecast for reserves remains the same as in previous months. Distributors generally adhere to defensive inventory strategies, and most respondents expect inventory levels to remain stable in the near future. This cautious approach is indicative of continued risk aversion across the sector.
Price expectations continue to rise
October was the third month in a row when European distributors began to expect higher prices. After the recession in the second quarter, sentiment steadily improved, and October shows the strongest positive outlook since the beginning of spring.
Although the price sentiment is not yet unambiguously optimistic, the trend indicates that more and more respondents are beginning to expect a moderate price increase in the coming months. This shift may reflect signs of supply contraction, demand stabilization, or expectations of replenishment cycles in the fourth quarter.
Key information to take away
Despite the first signs of an improvement in price sentiment, the data for October 2025 still reflects the market situation, constrained by weak demand and low transparency. Current activity has stabilized, while inventories remain at the same level, both indicators indicating that the sector is on hold.
Nevertheless, the continuation
