Global lead and zinc production will exceed demand in 2025, predicts the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG).
The output of refined lead this year is expected to increase by 1.9% to 13.27 million tons. This will mainly be driven by increased production in China, India, Mexico and the United States, while output is expected to decrease in Europe and South Korea.
Global lead consumption may increase by 1.5% and reach 13.19 million tons. Growth is forecast, in particular, in Brazil, India and Japan, while a decrease is expected in South Korea.
In the United States, metal demand fell by 8.3% last year, but a 4.3% increase is expected in 2025. In Europe, due to a reduction in car production, lead consumption decreased by 4.4% in 2024, and an increase of 1.8% is projected this year. Consumption in China is expected to grow by 0.9% in 2025 after falling by 1.3% last year.
Thus, in 2025, an excess of about 82 thousand tons of lead will form on the global market, ILZSG said in a statement.
The output of refined zinc in the world this year is expected to increase by 1.8% to 13.73 million tons.
Production in China will increase by 3.8% (after falling by 3.4% in 2024). Production is also expected to increase in Norway, where Boliden recently completed an expansion of the Odda plant's production capacity by 150,000 tons per year. Meanwhile, zinc production is forecast to decrease in Italy and Japan due to the closure of Glencore and Toho Zinc plants in these countries, as well as in South Korea.
Metal consumption may increase by 1% this year and reach 13.64 million tons. In particular, demand in China is expected to increase by 0.9% (after a decrease of 1.9% last year). Experts also suggest an increase in consumption in Brazil, India and Turkey, as well as a reduction in South Korea.
"Any deterioration in the global economic outlook due to trade policy uncertainty is likely to have a negative impact on the outlook for zinc demand", - the report notes.
The global zinc surplus in 2025 is projected at 93 thousand tons.
The ILZSG, established by the United Nations in 1959, provides information on the supply and demand for zinc and lead, and conducts research on the global markets for these metals. The group's members are Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Finland, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Morocco, Namibia, Norway, Peru, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Turkey and the United States, as well as the European Union. These countries account for more than 85% of the world's lead and zinc production and consumption.
