The World Steel Association (worldsteel) has published its short-term steel demand forecast for 2024 and 2025, according to which global steel consumption will reach 1,815 million tons in 2025.
Commenting on the forecast, Dr. Martin Theuringer, chairman of worldsteel's economic committee, said: "After two years of negative growth and severe market volatility following the COVID crisis in 2020, we are seeing the first signs that global steel demand is stabilizing on a growth path" in 2024 and 2025.
Worldsteel expects Chinese steel demand in 2024 to remain around 2023 levels as property investment continues to decline, but the corresponding loss in steel demand will be offset by rising steel demand driven by infrastructure investment and manufacturing sectors . In 2025, analysts expect steel demand in China to return to a downward trend with a decline of 1%.Forecasts for the rest of the world, excluding China, assume broad-based steel demand growth at a relatively high level 3. 5% per annum in 2024-25.
India has emerged as the strongest driver of steel demand growth since 2021 and forecasts show that steel demand in India will continue to grow rapidly, with steel demand in the country will grow by 8% in 2024 and 2025, driven by continued growth in all sectors that use steel, and especially by continued strong growth in infrastructure investment. In 2025, steel demand in India is projected to be nearly 70 million tonnes higher than in 2020.
Other emerging markets around the world, such as the Middle East and Africa and ASEAN, are expected to see demand rise steel prices will rise in 2024–2025 after a significant slowdown in 2022–2023. Growing challenges in the ASEAN region, such as political instability and declining competitiveness, could lead to slower steel demand growth in the future.
The developed world is also expected to see a stronger recovery: 1.3% in 2024 year and 2.7% in 2025. Meanwhile, steel demand is expected to finally show strong growth in the EU in 2025 and remain resilient in the US, Japan and Japan. Korea
The EU (and the UK) remain the region currently facing the biggest challenges. The region, and its steel-using industries in particular, faces challenges on multiple fronts: geopolitical shifts and uncertainty, high inflation, tightening monetary policy and partial withdrawal of fiscal support, and still-high energy and commodity prices. The persistence of these negative factors has led to a significant drop in steel demand in the region in 2023 to the lowest level since 2000 and a significant downward revision of the forecast for this year. After only a technical recovery in 2024, steel demand in the region is expected to finally show a significant recovery with growth of 5.3% in 2025. Forecasted EU steel demand in 2024 is only 1.5 million tonnes higher than during the pandemic in 2020.
In contrast to the EU, US steel demand continues to demonstrate healthy steel demand fundamentals . Domestic steel demand is expected to quickly return to growth path in 2024 after a sharp decline caused by a slowing housing market in 2023, thanks to strong investment activity boosted by the Inflation Reduction Act and a gradual recovery in housing activity.
