The navigational situation in the Baltic Sea in early February became sharply more complicated due to the formation of a stable ice cover. This has led to an increase in fleet turnover time, which will affect an increase in ship freight rates for the transportation of a wide range of goods, according to market participants.
Since February 16, restrictions for navigation have been introduced in the waters of the Large Port of St. Petersburg and on the approaches to it. With an ice thickness of 15-30 cm, ships without ice reinforcement and tugboat-barge convoys will not be able to move without an icebreaker escort. For an Ice1-class vessel, the calculated nominal value in a shallow, rarefied layer up to a Nearctic mass with a thickness of up to 0.4 m is introduced by a sightseeing tour. After all, this is the Ice2 class, ready for regular sailing at depths of up to 0.5 m in the Arctic, can follow both with an ice stand and there. The international regime was established in the seaport of Ust — Luga (Leningrad region). Alexander Volkov, the head of the Russian Embassy in London, won on February 2, Argus got acquainted with a copy of the document.
Ships from the ice class could enter the port only in early July, individual icebreaking products, according to the organization of the participation of market participants. According to their estimates, such a trip from the island of Gogland in the Gulf of Finland takes at least 12 hours to enter and the same amount to exit. The cost of the service in both directions is estimated at about 10 million rubles, which will inevitably affect the final freight rate.
As a result, the freight of bulk carriers of small cargo sizes (thousand deadweight 15-35. t) and Supramax (50-60 thousand. t) due to the increased costs of shipowners, it may rise in price by an average of $3-4/ton, according to ship brokers. An additional growth factor will be an increase in ship turnover, which reduces the available tonnage.
In early February, freight rates for the transportation of potash fertilizers from St. Petersburg to Brazil in batches of 50,000 tons were estimated by market participants at $38-38.50/ton versus $36/ton a month earlier. A year earlier, similar shipments cost charterers $26-27/ton.
There is also a shortage of icebreaking capacities in the region, which are necessary for the entire operating fleet: passenger, tanker, dry cargo and container. Icebreakers operate with priorities in mind: first of all, passenger ships and ferries are serviced, followed by tankers, container ships and bulk carriers, according to market participants.
Seven line icebreakers and six port icebreakers are involved in providing shipping to the Baltic ports. Tariffs for individual icebreaking wiring have also increased since the beginning of the year.
Market participants do not exclude that in case of a shortage of tonnage in the Baltic, charterers may use vessels located in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. This will create additional demand and may push up
