MEPS analysts discussed the factors underpinning their steel price forecast through 2031. In a 30-minute episode of the Speaking of Steel podcast, MEPS Head of Price Analysis and Forecasting Kay Ayoob and US steel market analyst Laura Hodges spoke with the company’s managing editor, Tom Sharp.
The Steel Price Outlook report examines expected trends in Europe, the US and Asia, taking into account global steel production, raw material costs and economic factors. Sharp said excess capacity in the global steel industry is fueling protectionism, while international conflicts in 2026 are affecting trade flows, making it difficult for steel buyers to plan their purchases with confidence.
Discussing Europe over the 2026–2031 forecast period, Ayoob noted the impact of stronger trade protection and weak demand. She said the cost of carbon emissions would play an increasingly important role following the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in the EU and the UK.
“As you move through the five-year forecast, the impact of CBAM increases as free emissions allowances for domestic steel producers are gradually phased out,” Ayoob said.
For the US market, one of the forecast’s key assumptions is that Section 232 tariffs will remain at 50%, Hodges said. The analyst also pointed to limited steel supply in the near term and expected growth in domestic production over the forecast period.
“This will keep prices high, but I think it will also somewhat curb their growth over the five-year period. If domestic prices rise too much, imports will become more attractive to US steel buyers — producers will want to avoid that outcome,” Hodges said.
In East Asia, Ayoob forecast that prices would continue to be influenced by raw material costs and excess capacity after coking coal prices peak in 2026. She also expects trade restrictions to tighten across Asian countries as production increases, and singled out India, where crude steel output is growing rapidly, as a market to watch.
The episode on Steel Price Outlook is available on demand on YouTube and Spotify. The MEPS report is now on sale. It includes five-year price forecasts for various flat and long steel products, forecasts for iron ore, coking coal and scrap prices, an overview of factors affecting steel supply and demand, and the latest data on GDP trends in key markets.
The 2026–2027 update includes new five-year price forecast data to be released in February and June, as well as the latest regional commentary from MEPS with a 12-month outlook.
