The past 2024 year ended with another shortage of 995 thousand ounces (31 tons) for platinum against the background of increased investment demand. This is 682,000 ounces more than the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) expected.
In this regard, WPIC experts have revised the deficit forecast for the current year 2025, increasing it by 309 thousand ounces compared to the previous estimate of 848 thousand ounces amid an expected decrease in supply, including after recycling.
Forecast '25 The total supply volume in 2025 will decrease by 4% for two reasons:
- A chronic 5% drop in production due to ongoing restructuring and optimization for sustainable production.
- Underutilization of processing facilities — the volume of processing remains almost 20% below the 10-year average. There are not enough supplies of automotive and jewelry products. However, the number of cars being scrapped is increasing, and it is hoped that the spent catalysts will be recycled.
Demand will decrease by 5%. Platinum consumption in the automotive industry will decrease by 1% due to the compression of the diesel car market in Europe and the reduction of truck production in North America.
Continuing the trend of 2024, demand in the jewelry industry may grow by 2% and exceed 2 million ounces for the first time since 2019, thanks to the support of manufacturers and retailers due to higher margins compared to gold and an increase in the market share of white gold.
Industrial demand will fall by 14% after a long period of steady capacity increases. In particular, the decline in glass production alone will amount to 58% to the levels of 2019, when capacity has not yet begun to increase everywhere.
Investment demand will also lose 14%. Despite the decrease compared to 2024, it includes a steady demand for bullion and coins, ETFs, as well as an increase in exchange stocks.
Thus, in 2025, the combination of supply and demand will lead to a deficit of 848,000 ounces.
After significant deficits in 2023 and 2024, WPIC experts expect 2025 to be a year of declining metal inventories.
Fourth quarter'24 Platinum demand in the last quarter of 2024 soared by more than 41% compared to the previous quarter and by 22% compared to last year. Just like in the gold market, investors were worried about the Trump administration and the talk of new duties. All this provoked a flow of platinum stocks from Europe to the United States, and investors increased investments in ETFs amid growing uncertainty and low prices for the metal.
According to WPIC, exchange-traded platinum reserves increased by 142 thousand ounces in the fourth quarter to 3.308 million ounces. Stocks on the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX and Tokyo's TOCOM increased by 126,000 ounces, which was the largest influx since the third quarter.
