The Government of Ukraine has approved the updated main forecast indicators of the country's economic and social development for 2020-2022 under two possible scenarios, which were developed by the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine. The latest revisions were made taking into account the current economic situation and changes in individual assumptions. They also took into account the priority reforms provided for by the government's program of activities, in particular:
- introduction of market turnover of agricultural land,
- effective privatization,
- reforming the rules of the labor market,
- demonopolization and competition,
- further deregulation of the economy,
- implementation of measures to promote Ukrainian exports in foreign markets and reduce barriers to the export of Ukrainian goods and services.
The indicators are developed according to two scenarios.
The first scenario provides for a further gradual acceleration of economic growth and the formation of a qualitative basis for sustainable economic development in the medium term. This scenario predicts:
- real GDP growth of 3.7% in 2020, 3.8% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022;
- consumer price index (December to December of the previous year) - 105.5% in 2020, 105.3% in 2021, 105.1% in 2022.
- Assumptions about the average annual exchange rate - UAH 27.0 per US dollar in 2020, UAH 27.2 per US dollar in 2021, UAH 27.5 per US dollar in 2022.
In the context of the successful implementation of reforms to improve the business climate, cardinal successes in the fight against corruption, reforming the judicial system and protecting property rights may cause a surge in investment activity, including through the inflow of foreign capital.
The corresponding effects are assessed in the second scenario. This scenario predicts:
- real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2020, 5.5% in 2021 and 6.5% in 2022;
- consumer price index (December to December of the previous year) - 105.8% in 2020, 105.0% in 2021 and 2022.
- Assumptions for the average annual exchange rate - UAH 24.8 per US dollar in 2020, UAH 23.9 per US dollar in 2021, UAH 24.2 per US dollar in 2022.
