January (from the Latin word for "door" - ianua) opens the door to the year: it's time to make new forecasts. Note that the previous extrapolations of prices for ferrous /galvanized metal products (CHOM) have not fundamentally changed.
Analysis of the metals market in 2017 and 2018 shows that the number of factors affecting the price of POM has increased along with the integration of the Russian Federation into the world economy. And the decline in demand (as it should be in a normal economy) prevails over the entire range of factors that increase (price). And the number of these factors is large and tends to increase, increasingly giving the pricing process the appearance of an oscillatory system.
The forecast for 2019 is presented in 2 types: option 1 (Figure 1) and option 2 (Figure 2). Both charts show multiple price fluctuations. Not 1 (as 3 - 4 years ago and earlier), but at least 2 (as in 2017–2018) or more (3) price peaks are expected. At the same time, the total space for speculations for all the years of analysis (areas of fluctuation figures) is still comparable, but due to the frequent division into oscillatory periods, it significantly complicates (many times!) The opportunity to make money on this.
Figure 1 - Forecast of CHOM prices for 2019 (from 1.01.19). Option 1
Figure 2 - Forecast of CHOM-prices for 2019 (from 1.01.19). Option 2
The graphs of both options are presented for the case of the absence of global world excesses, the impact of which (depending on their nature and strength) must be assessed after the fact. It is quite possible to expect a further increase in the number of price fluctuations both in a year and in a season: we only dream about peace ... At the same time, the forecast graphs show that with an increase in the number of peaks (price jumps), the field of speculation itself decreases, and the picture presented resembles damping fluctuations. p>
But is there a profit here? The insane competition for their piece of metal (bread) has completely squeezed out both wholesale traders and retailers. And the players can discuss the economy only discretely: "Colleague, do you have even less than zero or already more?" It is the usual zero, not the bank deposit level: it is no longer achievable, apparently, never ...
What to do? Someone turns their warehouses into consignment warehouses, someone plays all-in (increasing the area of the pyramid base), someone thinks about leaving the market altogether. There are a lot of decisions, but there are zero positives. In such a super-highly competitive and mega-low-margin market, optimism for independent traders is not visible: we are on the verge of solid steel "Pyaterochkas" & "Magnets". It's time to make money (as much as possible) on salads and other self-made dishes with maximum added value.
Charts of price changes for 2018 from partners (Fig. 3 - 4)
2018 - consolidated price index (according to Metaltorg.ru)
