Fitch Ratings analysts have revised up their recent forecast for copper and aluminum prices in the coming years due to the imbalance in the global market, and for gold due to geopolitical tensions. The experts also adjusted the cost estimates for coking and thermal coal, platinum, palladium and lithium for 2025, reflecting short-term price factors, the agency said.
Expectations for steel ore, nickel, zinc and cobalt remained unchanged.
In addition, analysts have added a forecast for the cost of raw materials in 2028.
"US trade duties are likely to have consequences for the global economy and thus increase metal price volatility," the report notes.The increase in copper forecasts for 2025-2027 reflects a tight balance in the global market in the short and medium term due to continued growing demand from China, although the growth rate is slowing to 2-3% per year from 7% in 2023. The consumption of refined copper in China accounts for about 60% of global demand.
The lower forecast for coking coal for this year reflects weaker steel demand in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, coal supplies were affected by disruptions in the operation of several mines and severe weather conditions. Demand for coking coal is likely to resume only towards the end of this year, when new blast furnaces will be put into operation in India and Southeast Asia.
Higher forecasts for aluminum for 2025-2026 are supported by increased demand, especially in developed markets and China, and limited supply growth, as well as higher prices for alumina due to supply disruptions.
The increase in gold price expectations for 2025-2027 is due to the highest geopolitical premium due to the precious metal being considered a "safe harbor."
"Concerns about a trade war and volatility in the equity and bond markets have increased investment inflows into gold, leading to record prices. Geopolitical risks and growing investor concerns about inflation and sovereign debt should support prices in the short and medium term," Fitch said in a report.Expectations for platinum and palladium for this year have been lowered due to the likely price correction due to the effects of the trade war. "We expect suppliers to eventually reduce production, leading to a resumption of prices in line with our assumptions in 2026," the agency's analysts note.
Lower price forecasts for thermal coal for 2025 reflect weaker demand, especially from China
