Global steel demand will fall 0.9% year-on-year in 2024 to 1.75 billion tonnes, the World Steel Association (WSA) warned in the latest update to its short-term steel forecast, published on October 14. The new decline forecast compares with the association's earlier forecast in April of 1.7% year-on-year growth, Mysteel Global said.
“We are significantly reducing our forecast for steel demand in 2024 for most major economies, including China, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing amid ongoing global economic difficulties,” commented Martin Theuringer, Managing Director of the German Steel Association and Chairman of the WSA Economic Committee.
“2024 was a challenging year for global steel demand as the global manufacturing sector continued to struggle with declining household purchasing power, aggressive monetary tightening and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Continued weakness in housing construction, driven by tight financing conditions and high costs, has further contributed to sluggish steel demand,” he said.
As for China, the WSA forecasts steel demand to fall 3% year-on-year this year and another 1% in 2025 due to a recession in the country's real estate sector. But the association acknowledged the risk of raising its forecast for next year as "the likelihood of greater government intervention and support for the real economy increases, which could support steel demand in China in 2025," it said.
Meanwhile, according to the press release, steel demand in developing countries excluding China is expected to grow by 3.5% and 4.2% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 and 2025. driven primarily by India's robust growth and recovery in other major emerging economies, including the ASEAN and MENA regions.
WSA noted that India is the strongest driver of steel demand growth from 2021, and forecasts 8% growth in steel demand in the country in 2024 and 2025. Growth will be driven by increased demand across all steel-consuming sectors, especially driven by sustained growth in infrastructure investment, the association noted.
The WSA forecasts that in developed economies, although their steel demand may decline by 2% year-on-year this year due to significant weakness in major steel-consuming countries such as the US, Japan, South Korea and Germany are expected to recover up to 1.9% year-on-year in 2025, driven by stronger demand in the EU and modest recoveries in the US and Japan.
As a result, the WSA estimates global steel demand will grow 1.2% year-on-year in 2025 to 1.77 billion tonnes.
“The key factors shaping the global steel demand outlook in 2025-26 will be progress made in stabilizing China's real estate sector, the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments to stimulate private consumption and business investment, and the trajectory of spending on infrastructure aimed at decarbonization and digital transformation in the world's major economies,” said Theuringer.
