In its 2023 Energy Outlook, BP Plc said that the war in Ukraine will slow global economic activity by about 3% by 2035 compared to last year's forecast due to higher food and energy prices, as well as trading activity.
BP cut its 2035 oil and gas demand forecast by 5% and 6% respectively, in line with its main forecast scenario, based on the government's current energy transition plans. The changes will affect mainly Europe and Asia, which are largely dependent on energy imports, according to BP.
According to the three scenarios considered by BP, the peak of world energy demand occurs in the period from the late 2020s to 2035 .
But global energy trade routes changed dramatically after the war, especially after Moscow was cut off from exporting much of its natural gas to neighboring Europe, and Europe banned itself from importing Russian oil.
At the same time, rising global energy prices last year prompted governments to accelerate domestic energy production, including nuclear power, renewables, hydropower and coal.
Overall, BP expects primary energy consumption in 2035 to year will be 2% lower than last year’s forecast, with half of the decline due to improved energy efficiency and half due to lower economic activity.
“Increased focus on energy security from the Russo-Ukrainian war could accelerate the energy transition as countries seek to expand access to domestically produced energy, much of which is likely to come from renewables and other non-fossil fuels,” the chief economist said in a report. BP Spencer Dale.
Under BP's three scenarios, oil demand will begin to decline rapidly after 2030, but will continue to play an important role in the global energy system, with global demand reaching 70-80 million barrels a day by 2035. day (bpd) compared to today's consumption of about 100 million bpd.