According to ArcelorMittal, trade disruptions may lead to reduced risks compared to the previous forecast of an increase in apparent demand in 2025. Steel production in Europe has recovered due to policy measures, but remains low in China due to overcapacity.
Underlying demand remains strong in India, and newly approved protective measures are expected to support prices, while tariffs support values in the United States. The Steel and Steel Products Action Plan, enhanced import protection measures and the German Infrastructure Fund support development prospects in Europe.
However "The action plan now needs to be implemented quickly; its visibility is crucial." Ensuring industry access to competitive energy resources, effective CBAM, and trade protection. At this stage, the company will be able to review its investment priorities in the European segment", - ArcelorMittal said in a report reviewed by[b]Kallanish[/b].
In February, the company said demand should grow, and restocking activities would complement the real improvement in demand amid low inventory levels. However, the firm had expressed similar expectations a year earlier, but replenishment ultimately failed in 2024. It says that the latest downside risks relate, in particular, to the United States and China.
Despite the more uncertain outlook, the company has not made any changes to its investment plans. Capital expenditures in 2025 are projected to amount to $4.5-5 billion, including $1.4-1.5 billion for strategic growth projects and $0.3-0.4 billion for decarbonization-related projects.
Consolidated shipments of ArcelorMittal steel in the first quarter increased by 1% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 13.6 million tons. Steel production increased by 3% to 14.8 million tons. Sales fell 9% to $14.8 billion, while net income dropped 14% to $805 million. Ebitda decreased by 19% to $1.58 billion, while Ebitda margin decreased by 1.32 percentage points to 10.7%.
In Europe alone, steel shipments increased by 4% year-on-year to 7.5 million tons, and the Ebitda margin increased to 5.1% from 4.4% a year earlier, while the Ebitda margin in North America decreased to 16.5% from 21% a year earlier.
"Increased uncertainty about global trade conditions undermines business confidence and, if not addressed quickly, could lead to further economic turmoil. However, it is encouraging that governments around the world are committed to supporting the domestic manufacturing industry", - says the executive
