According to British steel supplier All Steels, the UK steel market has entered one of the longest phases of decline since the favorable conditions of 2021 and 2022. Demand and prices remain at historically low levels, while the European economy as a whole is also showing limited momentum. Recent U.
S. protectionist import measures have further undermined the competitiveness of European manufacturers.
In 2024, EU steel exports to the United States totaled 3.8 million tons and are now subject to a 50 percent import duty, while UK steel exports of 180,000 tons are subject to a 25 percent duty. Due to even higher duties applied to other global suppliers, Europe has become a place of accumulation of surplus steel, which forces factories to lower prices in order to maintain market share, often at a loss.
CBAM and new import quotas to change the market structure
The new trade policy of the European Commission, combining import restrictions with the Carbon Boundary Regulation Mechanism (CBAM), represents a major structural shift. The CBAM, which is due to take effect on January 1, 2026, is expected to increase the cost of imports by 30-130 pounds per ton, depending on origin and carbon intensity.
The revised system of protective measures will limit duty-free imports to 18.3 million tons per year, which is about half of the current quota, while increasing non-quota tariffs from 25% to 50%.
The UK is expected to repeat the EU's approach
Although the UK government has not yet announced its final position, it is expected to take parallel or coordinated measures with the EU to restrict non-EU imports. If producers from the EU and the UK can meet domestic demand by 18-20 million tonnes, the sector can restore profitability and free up capital to invest in decarbonization.
All Steels warns that if excess imports are fully taxed at 50%, a sharp price spike will follow.
The existing EU and UK safeguards expire on June 30, 2026, but the European Commission intends to ratify the new rules earlier, possibly from January 1 or April 1, 2026, pending legislative approval and WTO approval.
Discussions with European factories and distributors show trends to be revised as buyers seek to avoid the costs associated with CBAM. Traders are withdrawing from Asian markets due to long delivery times and tariff risks, reduced import shipments in 2026, and the transfer of pricing power to domestic producers.
All Steels predicts a sharp rise in prices
All Steels predicts that steel prices
