The new protective measure that the EU is proposing to put into effect in 2026 will act solely in the interests of steel producers and in many ways to the detriment of steel consumers, says German consultant Andreas Schneider.
"The European Commission has accepted all the demands of steel producers to an unprecedented extent in the interests of one particular industry," Schneider writes in his blog on Stahlmarkt Consult. According to his calculations, imports of flat rolled products will decrease by 8.5 million tons per year, which will amount to more than 10% of consumption in the EU.
Obviously, all EU factories will use these conditions to raise their prices, says Schneider. "Steel buyers need to adjust their price forecasts for 2026 in the direction of a significant increase," Kallanish's blog says. He cites an estimate from a European Commission document that predicts a 3.25% price increase, which he calls "very underestimated."
He argues that the main crisis in Europe – the lack of industrial demand – will be exacerbated by these measures, since they also do not apply to industrial products containing steel, otherwise known as steel derivatives. This will exacerbate the economic costs of EU producers compared to international competition, he concludes.
Alexander Julius, President of EUROMETAL, also highlights this point. Unlike Schneider, he advocates protective measures in principle, but criticizes the fact that they do not include steel derivatives. "If steel derivatives are not added to these measures, I wonder to whom European factories will want to sell their steel in the future," he said in a recent interview with the BBC.
He noted that exports of steel products from China to Europe have been growing by 20% annually in recent years.
Christian Kel Germany
Kallanish.com
