Iron ore quotes in early July 2025 were notable for their recovery to two-month highs. In particular, during the week of June 30 – July 4, September ZRS futures on the Dalian Stock Exchange (DCE) increased by 2.3% to $102.2/ton, while August contracts on the Singapore Stock Exchange are valued at $96.15/ton (+1.6%).
The price increase was supported by a combination of fundamental and speculative factors.
A temporary decrease in sea shipments, as well as active purchases by traders amid expectations of new incentives from China, created a positive momentum in the market. In the middle of the week, the results of the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission of the People's Republic of China also contributed to the growth, where intentions to combat excess steel capacity and inefficient competition were announced.
After Beijing's signals to reduce outdated production facilities and improve product quality, traders began to build expectations for a more stable structure of demand for raw materials. This also affected spot activity.
However, the situation remained ambiguous. In the first half of the week, prices declined slightly due to news about steel production restrictions in Shanxi and Tangshan provinces, key regions of Chinese metallurgy. Although there was no official confirmation of the extent of the restrictions, the market was wary of these signals, which temporarily weighed on sentiment.
Activity remained on the spot market, although it decreased slightly at the end of the week. Analysts attribute this to the gradual disappearance of the effect of political news and the expectation of an increase in port stocks due to the completion of quarterly shipments.
In the short term, prices may remain in the range of $95-100/ton for standard 62% Fe ore, provided that high volumes of pig iron smelting in China are maintained. However, medium-term risks are associated with seasonal weakness in construction demand and uncertainty about the duration of government support.
