Gold entered the second half of 2025 after an exceptional start in the first half of the year, with growth of 26% driven by the weakening of the US dollar, ongoing geopolitical risks, continued purchases by central banks and investor demand, according to experts at the World Gold Council (WGC).
Further dynamics will largely depend on economic tensions, the trajectory of inflation and monetary policy.
The WGC consensus forecast for the second half of the year assumes stability with moderate growth potential while maintaining macroeconomic conditions. Investments from new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, can provide relative support to prices.
A more volatile geopolitical and economic scenario may push gold to significant growth, especially if the risks of stagflation or recession materialize, then interest in safe assets will increase.
On the other hand, this cannot be ruled out, as widespread and sustained normalization of economic and trade relations will lead to higher returns on the stock market and a restoration of risk appetite, which will undermine the dynamics of gold. There may also be a noticeable decrease in demand from central banks compared to current expectations.
"Overall, we believe that gold, due to its fundamental qualities, remains in a favorable position to support tactical and strategic investment decisions in the current unstable macroeconomic landscape," the WGC emphasized.
The second half of 2025 is a swing year, and geo-economic uncertainty will keep investors on their toes. The inflation data shows signs of improvement, but concerns persist that the situation could deteriorate rapidly. The pressure associated with the dollar will continue, and questions about the end of US exceptionalism will not cease to excite the economy.
These conditions position gold as a net beneficiary, but despite strong fundamental factors, the price has already partially reflected them.
Continued normalization Market consensus suggests that global GDP will move sideways in the second half of the year. Global inflation will exceed 5% as the global impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced. In response, central banks will begin to lower interest rates cautiously in the fourth quarter, and the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points by the end of the year.
Despite the fact that progress is being made in trade negotiations, the situation will be unstable, as it has been in the last few months, especially between the United States and China.
Consensus framework With current expectations of key macroeconomic variables, the gold price may
