The cost of a ton of rebar, depending on the terms of sale, dropped to 46.5–48 thousand rubles in August, despite the traditionally high summer season for construction products. In conditions of stagnation of commercial and housing projects, which have not yet felt the effect of lowering the key interest rate, metallurgists compete for orders by price. Experts expect the market to recover no earlier than 2026.
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According to preliminary data from Metals & Mining Intelligence (MMI), in August the cost of a ton of rebar decreased to 48 thousand rubles on the basis of FCA (selling prices of large traders). On the basis of CPT (prices of manufacturing plants), fittings fell in price to 46.5 thousand rubles per ton. Since the beginning of June, the quotes have fallen by 15.4% and 13.8%, respectively. On a monthly basis, prices adjusted by about 11%.
The MMI, whose data is referenced by Kommersant, does not note a significant decrease in rebar consumption in the Russian market in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year. They explain that significant volumes of consumption are provided mainly by large infrastructure projects (renovation programs, construction in new territories), which are secured by long-term contracts at fixed, often low prices.
But demand from commercial construction and small businesses remains sluggish, says Mikhail Golenkov, director of the MMI information and analytical center.
"There has been a reduction in the launch of new apartment building projects and a decrease in the volume of mortgage loans issued. A number of developers are postponing deadlines and stopping projects that have already begun due to a lack of funds in escrow accounts," the expert states.As Alexander Semin, director of Gazprombank's Center for Economic Forecasting, points out, in seven months the volume of construction permits in Russia decreased by 50% year-on-year, to 23 million square meters. m. In such conditions, Mr. Golenkov continues, factories are forced to compete for a limited volume of orders, aggressively lowering prices.
Kommersant's interlocutors in metallurgical companies also associate negative trends with the stagnation of construction, which has not yet had time to feel the effect of lowering the key rate. "Even with a reduction in the key rate to 10-12% next year, industry representatives are talking about restoring demand and business activity in metal-intensive industries to the level of 2023 only in the second half of 2026," said Boris Krasnozhenov, head of the Securities Market Analytics Department at Alfa Bank.
Rebar exports, Mikhail Golenkov adds, have recovered after the abolition of export duties since the beginning of 2025. But, according to him, the strong ruble and low world prices do not allow Russian manufacturers to create
