There are no factors that would allow us to increase production in the fourth quarter yet. An improvement in the situation in the industry is possible only next year, analysts say.
Illustrative photo: Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works.
In January –September, Russian enterprises produced 50.8 million tons, which is 5% less than in the same period last year. Such data is provided by the information and analytical company "Chermet Corporation", to which the Vedomosti publication refers. In September, steel output decreased by 4% to 5.2 million tons, according to the company's materials.
The production of finished products, rolled products, increased by 3% year–on–year to 4.6 million tons in September. In nine months, the indicator decreased by 5% and amounted to 44.5 million tons. Pipe output in September fell by 30% to 700,000 tons, in January –September – by 16% to 7.9 million tons.
The production of raw materials shows multidirectional dynamics. Pig iron smelting decreased by 3% to 3.9 million tons in September, and by 2% to 37.7 million tons in January–September. Coke output fell by 10.5% in September, and by 7% in nine months to 16.9 million tons. Iron ore production in September amounted to 8.3 million tons (+0.3% YoY), in January –September – 80.2 million tons (+2%).
It follows from the data of the Chermet Corporation that the dynamics of steel production in the country has stabilized, and output is falling after recovery in the second quarter. In the first half of 2025, smelting also decreased by 5% and amounted to approximately 35 million tons. The same dynamics was recorded in the first seven and eight months of this year. At the same time, in June and July, metallurgists produced 5.7 million tons of steel, and in August – 5.5 million tons. The minimum value this year was recorded in March – 5.1 million tons.
Demand for steel in Russia is falling due to a decrease in activity in construction and mechanical engineering against the background of a high key rate of the Central Bank, Severstal previously indicated. The key rate has been at 21% since the end of October 2024, and the Central Bank lowered it to 20% in early June 2025, to 18% in July, and to 17% in September.
According to Severstal analysts, demand for steel in Russia decreased by 15% year–on-year in January-June 2025, Severstal CEO Alexander Shevelev said in July. Based on the company's data, steel consumption in the first half of the year amounted to approximately 19.8 million tons.
The volume of steel consumption in Russia in 2024, according to Severstal, amounted to 43.7 million tons, which is 6% less than in the previous year (46.3 million tons). Alexey Sentyurin, president of the Russian Steel Association (which unites large Russian ferrous metallurgy enterprises), predicted in June that demand for steel in Russia could decrease by 10% this year. Based on the association's data, the demand may reach 39.4 million tons. This is the minimum level since 2016. At the same time, Russian Steel forecasts a 2.5% increase in steel exports in 2025 to 20.5 million tons.
According to "Chermet Corporation",
