The Russian Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems (IPEM) predicts that the market for new cars in 2022–2027 will contract by an average of 1% per year. To saturate it, it will be enough for car builders of the Russian Federation to produce 44.1 thousand cars per year, that is, 22.8% less than in 2020, and 44.6% less than in the record 2019 (79.6 thousand units).
At the same time, the production of gondola cars, according to IPEM estimates, will decrease by an average of 6.6% per year, of fitting platforms - by 6.3% per year, while the tanker market, on the contrary, will grow by 7.7% per year. due to high write-off volumes. The market volume for this entire period will be about 1 trillion rubles, the leasing market - 640 billion rubles.
IPEM Deputy General Director Vladimir Savchuk notes that the demand for railcars is provided by the growth in the transportation of coal, ferrous metals, fertilizers and containers, but “the significant effect from the influence of external conditions will soon be exhausted, and then the market is expected to overheat, including in open wagons and fitting platforms, lower operating rates, reduced orders for freight car manufacturers and optimization of capacities. ”
The increased volumes of the fleet supply to the network observed today are shifting the period of the next increase in demand for cars from 2025 to a later time, the expert sums up.