Russian hot-rolled steel fell 6% in August on a FOB Black Sea basis and is now trading at a discount of $ 60 per ton to export prices in China, VTB Capital writes. Spot market demand in the EU is slowing after a strong contraction in activity and stockpiling over several months. On the domestic market, Russian producers reduced prices for rolled products in September by 10%, as follows from the review.
So far, steel prices are supported by the high cost of raw materials - coal, ore and steel scrap, but with the tightening of monetary policy by regulators in the US and the EU, raw material quotations will also begin to decline, the expert said. In this regard, the likelihood of an extension of export duties in 2022 is low.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has already announced that they do not see the prerequisites for extending export duties next year, but their revision this year is unlikely. “We are in dialogue with our government colleagues, so we will try to find a compromise,” said the head of the ministry, Denis Manturov, on September 2. “But taking into account the fact that we are already in September, and the duty is valid until the end of December, the process of even making a decision will have to be quite at the end of the year, if such a decision is made.”
The duties consist of a base rate of 15% and an additional component, depending on the type of metal, the depth of processing, etc. ferroalloys - $ 150 per ton.
Export duties should be replaced next year by an increased MET, the amount of which is expected to be tied to world prices for the final product. Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation Alexei Sazanov said on August 31 that concrete proposals would be prepared by early October.