The hot rolled steel (HRC) markets in the US could face their biggest challenges in almost 10 months in a steady March, as media reports suggest a potential trade deal between the US and Canada could lead to a halving of US import duties on the latter country.
According to the latest steel price index, the price of HRC steel in the United States has reached its highest level in more than four years, surpassing $1,200 per short ton (st) in the price cycle for just the third time in its history. The price spike on August 18 occurred ahead of reports on August 19 about a possible reduction in steel duties levied by Canada from 50% to 25%.
Although the details of the deal have not yet been agreed, the US market is trying to digest the news of the possible return of its largest steel trading partner as a supplier. HRC futures in the USA
We faced a sharp sell-off on CME after prices for the fourth quarter reached a new peak at the beginning of the week. On August 20, the value of the October forward contract was $1,175 per share, down $50 per share from the previous day. November and December contracts fell even more, dropping by $58 per share and $56 per share to $1,150 per share and $1,131 per share, respectively. Factories
andThe United States has had difficulty for several months securing enough locations to meet customer demand due to a combination of increased annual contractual obligations following the displacement of Canada and Mexico, as well as production downtime due to scheduled or unscheduled maintenance.
Despite the decline in the forecast curve, the physical market continued to reflect on exactly what the tariff cuts for Canada would have for pricing and negotiations on annual contracts, which are scheduled to begin in the next 30 days. Export volume of flat rolled products
From Canada to the United States, it averaged 3.8 million tons per year between 2021 and 2024, with the figure dropping to 2.5 million tons in 2025 and just 812,343 tons in 2026, including preliminary license data for July and August, according to U.
S. Department of Commerce data. Market sources
It was reported that shipments from Canada could resume if tariffs were reduced to 25%, but the speed of return and the volume of shipments were the biggest issues.
Some sources noted that the resumption of supplies from Canada could serve as a means of reducing pressure rather than causing a sharp correction in domestic prices. Service centers report that they have to reject customer orders due to the lack of spot supplies in the domestic market. In addition, there is a growing interest in imported
