for November, the most basic non-ferrous metals were under pressure because of the uncertainty in trade disputes between the US and China, and was distinguished by its volatility. The exception was only lead and Nickel, the prices of which steadily decreased. The intake of lead from automotive industry reduced the demand for lead acid batteries is reduced due to the development of alternative power sources, which led to decrease in quotations on the London metal exchange. On the Shanghai futures exchange, the December futures for lead declined, and stocks increased from 21,411 thousand tons to 36,914 tonnes.
price Forecasts Fitch Solutions - 2020 vs 2019 (difference in%)
Nickel Prices on the London metal exchange (LME) in November continued declining, but the pace has increased significantly. Within a month the stock price of Nickel declined amid increasing inventories of the metal 66,306 thousand tons to 68,280 thousand tons on the dates indicated. The reason for the current low demand for stainless steel. Despite the decline in November, for the first 11 months of 2019, Nickel prices show the largest increase (+ 32.2 per cent compared with the beginning of the year) for all base non-ferrous metals listed on the LME. Recall that 02.01.2019 Nickel cathodes worth 10 of USD 440 per tonne. In the long term, Nickel prices will cease to decline or even growth will resume due to a sustained increase in demand from manufacturers of electric vehicles and batteries.
the Government of Indonesia had planned to ban the export of Nickel ore from 2022. This decision of the government was due to the calculations to have before the time of the ban is sufficient capacity for the production of products with higher added value (Nickel pig iron or ferronickel). First, the ban was postponed to January 2020, and then in October last year introduced an immediate ban on the export of specified raw materials after significant growth of export volumes. In November, Indonesia has canceled immediate ban and resumed exports, which led to increased supply and sustained decline in world prices. The main consumer of Indonesian Nickel ore is China, because after 2020, he will either have to import from Indonesia Nickel pig iron (NPI), or to purchase Nickel ore in the neighboring Philippines, which also plan legislative restrictions.
In 2019, the Philippines, which is the second after Indonesia manufacturer of Nickel ore in the world, increased its exports to China to increase its share in the local market and plan to increase production to overcome a possible shortage of material in China after the introduction of restrictions by Indonesia. On the Shanghai futures exchange, the December futures for Nickel declined and stocks grew accordingly.
Valery Studentsov, expert of the state enterprise "Derzhzovnishinform"
