Российские металлурги пытаются воспользоваться ростом цен на китайский прокат на части иностранных рынков в связи с конфликтом на Ближнем Востоке, вызвавшим подъем ставок фрахта.
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%D0%9F%D0%BE %D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%BC SteelOrbis, %D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%BC %D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%BA%D1%83%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%BC %D0%B2 %D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B3%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5 MENA %D0%B3%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%8F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9 %D1%80%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BD %D0%B8%D0%B7 %D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8 %D1%81 %D0%B4%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9 %D0%B2 %D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5 %D0%B8 %D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B5 %D0%B2 %D1%81%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BC %D0%BF%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%B0%D0%B5%D1%82%D1%81%D1%8F %D0%BF%D0%BE $490–495 %D0%B7%D0%B0 %D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%83 %D0%BD%D0%B0 %D1%83%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%8F%D1%85 CFR (%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%BB%D1%8E%D1%87%D0%B0%D0%B5%D1%82 %D1%81%D1%82%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C %D1%84%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%85%D1%82%D0%B0), %D0%B0 %D0%B4%D0%BB%D1%8F %D0%A2%D1%83%D1%80%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B8 — $485–490 %D0%B7%D0%B0 %D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%83. %D0%9E%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD %D0%B8%D0%B7 %D0%BC%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BB%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%85 %D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2, %D0%BD%D0%B5 %D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%8F%D1%89%D0%B8%D1%85%D1%81%D1%8F %D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B4 %D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BA%D1%86%D0%B8%D1%8F%D0%BC%D0%B8, %D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B2%D1%8B%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB %D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%8B %D0%B4%D0%BB%D1%8F %D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%86%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%85 %D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2 %D1%81 $525 %D0%B4%D0%BE $535–540 (CFR) %D0%B7%D0%B0 %D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%83 %D1%81 %D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B9 %D0%B2 %D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B5, %D1%83%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%BD%D1%8F%D1%8E%D1%82 %D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8.
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12,1 %D0%BC%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B8%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B0 %D1%82%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%BD %D1%81%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BB %D1%8D%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%BF%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%82 %D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B8 %D0%B8%D0%B7 %D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8 %D0%B2 2025 %D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%83, %D0%BF%D0%BE %D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%BC BigMint.
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Иллюстративное фото: НЛМК.
Партнер NEFT Research по консалтингу Александр Котов считает, что высокие цены будут на протяжении всего конфликта на Ближнем Востоке.
По его словам, Китай и Индия остаются крупнейшими экспортерами горячекатаного рулона в Турцию и регион MENA. "Выбор зависит от удержания РФ дисконта и рисков логистики у Азии — пока фрахт высокий, российские поставки выгоднее. Премия может исчезнуть, как только логистика через Ормузский пролив нормализуется или китайские экспортеры скорректируют цены",— рассуждает аналитик.
Александр Котов добавляет, что российские поставщики могут заменить и упущенные иранские объемы по более высоким ценам. Всемирная ассоциация стали (WSA) оценила производство в Иране в 2025 году в 31,8 млн тонн, что соответствует десятому месту в мире.
Младший директор по корпоративным рейтингам агентства "Эксперт РА" Олег Емельченков отмечает, что спрос на металл в Турции и странах MENA останется осторожным. "В Турции давление создают высокая ключевая ставка и неясные перспективы стройки. В MENA добавляются геополитические риски и финансовые проблемы покупателей",— поясняет он. Как считает аналитик, если просадка азиатских предложений сохранится, активизация закупок возможна, но реальные объемы будут зависеть от динамики ставок фрахта и готовности покупателей платить.
