Steel prices will rise ahead of the introduction of the European Carbon Dioxide Emissions Regulation Mechanism (CBAM), which will become effective from January 2026, panelists said at the Kallanish Europe Steel Markets conference in Amsterdam.
The panelists noted that although steel demand remains strong, it is currently worrying that steel prices are likely to be supported in the third and fourth quarters, as orders are due to be placed soon ahead of January shipments, when the CBAM takes effect.
Jerome Waterkane, CEO of Steelforce, said: "Demand is one thing… We're seeing[with]imports starting on January 1, 2026, and customers are starting to worry that if they don't make a purchase now, they'll be late and they'll be charged, or we'll have to charge them an unknown amount."
He added that they were strapped for funds. Thanks to the numerous quotas already in place, which can be filled by the fourth quarter, before other quotas are opened. This may mean that "they will be fined an additional amount. This creates uncertainty, but it creates some resurgence in replenishment, at least on the import side."
"Maybe CBAM can activate the market, because demand is also very strong, it's about people's belief that the market can go up," the head of Steelforce added.
. This was echoed by Julian Verdun, Managing Director for Europe at the stemcor Group.
That "it would be logical to assume that people are going to try to do something right before the CBAM prices, which could cost €60 per ton" as of January 1, he said.
Kamal Arifi, Director of SSAB's Commercial Transformation Department in Europe, noted that uncertainty and challenges are supporting prices.
"Even from some market experts, the uncertainty, the difficulties they are experiencing now, which will obviously support prices in one direction or the other," Arifi commented.
He stressed that the analyst expects prices in the 4th quarter to support the implementation of CBAM.
Verdun added that there is a "multi-price and multi-market opportunity, it all depends on what is blocked and what is not blocked, and the different prices that are for America, for Europe, for the UK and the whole world."
"I think the CBAM implementation is going to at least push prices up," said Waterkeyn, who noted that "the green transformation aspect is hugely supportive of keeping prices at higher levels."
Waterkeyn added that the global movement in Europe for the Green Market is through
