Buyers are cautious in the global long products market, supply pressure remains high
Demand in the global market of long products remains weak both structurally and seasonally. Buyers are being careful, switching hands, and still putting off medium- or long-term commitments. At the same time, supply-side pressures remain high. China has finally shown a significant decline in production (in 2025, production dropped to 960 million tons, below one billion tons for the first time since 2019), but its exports rose to a record 119 million tons.
.Geopolitics pushes currency and commodity markets in different directions, causing uncertainty
Geopolitical tensions are clearly growing and tearing apart currency and commodity markets in different directions, increasing uncertainty for both businesses and traders. This contributes to a wait-and-see attitude of buyers towards demand, while the costs of raw materials, especially scrap metal, are supported to a greater extent than for finished steel products.
Demand in the EU is still weak, imports have slowed down significantly due to CBAM uncertainty
Demand in the EU market is still weak. It is not only seasonal conditions, but also uncertainty about policy decisions that deter buyers from making larger commitments. Despite a solid portfolio of orders, construction companies do not flood the market to avoid rising prices. The absolute uncertainty regarding quotas, CBAM, etc. has significantly reduced import volumes. As of January 1, only a few quotas were fully used, which confirms the concerns of importers and traders.
Expectations for commercial construction in the United States for 2026 are declining
In the United States, expectations for commercial construction have declined this year, with negative forecasts in five of the 17 market segments. Data centers (57% of positive results) and energy projects (34% of positive results) remain at a high level. Although 63% of companies plan to hire new employees in 2026, more than 80% have difficulty finding qualified employees. Tariffs have affected 70% of contractors, and 63% report delays or cancellations of projects due to funding problems and rising costs. The main concerns for 2026 include slowing economic growth, labor shortages, rising labor costs, and volatility in materials prices due to imports.
The U.
S. housing construction segment is also showing weakness, and U.
S. factories are in a strong position.
The situation with housing construction in the United States is no better. According to the U.
S. Census Bureau
