According to forecasts by the World Steel Manufacturers Association (Worldsteel), in 2026, global steel demand is projected to increase by 0.3% to 1.72 billion tons, and in 2027, the growth rate will "accelerate" by 2.2% to 1.76 billion tons. The report was published on Tuesday, April 14.
The report suggests that global steel demand may reach a bottom in the near term as the industry emerges from a "protracted and complex phase of global structural change that has held back demand since 2022."
Worldsteel attributed the expected change in demand trends to a slowdown in the pace of demand reduction in China and India's "dynamic" steel economy, which is contributing to an increase in steel demand in the next couple of years.
However, the organization acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf region and related restrictions on commodity flows could be a deterrent to growth in the region.
It became known that over the past month, several steel companies in the Persian Gulf have reduced production due to a regional conflict that restricts access to marine raw materials, including iron ore pellets and ferroalloys, sources told Fastmarkets.
The largest steel mills in Iran have been affected by the strikes, and it may take from 6 to 12 months to recover from them, local news agencies report.
China's demand deficit is decreasing
Worldsteel expects China's demand deficit to decrease to -1.5% in 2026, citing that the housing market correction may have bottomed out and infrastructure investment is expected to increase this year.
The association expects steel demand in China to stabilize in 2027 compared to expectations in 2026, which they believe is due to the effects of the real estate correction, which is expected to show up significantly in 2026.
Fastmarkets estimates that prices for domestic hot-rolled coils from a warehouse in Eastern China on Tuesday, April 14, were 3280-3300 yuan ($474-475) per ton, compared with 3280-3290 yuan on March 13, with continued supply constraints helping to keep prices at the same level, Fast Food Market sources said.
Market participants stated that the high export rates of slabs caused by the reduction in supplies from Iran after the war, its large-scale consequences for the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to a sharp increase in foreign orders, which led to the displacement of slabs from the domestic market, thereby providing basic support for HRC prices.
Steel demand in India continues to grow
Steel demand in India, the world's largest fast-growing steel market, is expected to grow by 7.4% in 2026.
