The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that the direct impact of the new US import tariffs on Ukrainian exports will be minimal. This is due to the fact that exports from Ukraine to the United States in 2024 amounted to only 2.2% ($0.9 billion) of total exports of goods. Due to the surplus of trade in goods with Ukraine, the United States applied the lowest duty of 10% against our country.
The following expectations are given in the NBU inflation report with an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2027.
The NBU's estimates of the moderate impact of tariff wars on Ukraine are also based on the structural features of the domestic economy, in particular, a significant share of agricultural exports and high dependence on energy imports.
The basis of Ukrainian exports is cast iron, which accounts for 42% of exports to the United States. According to NBU estimates, exports of metallurgical products will not undergo critical changes due to the relatively high share of pig iron imports in U.
S. consumption (about 20% in 2023). Also, previous experience shows that even in the presence of anti-dumping duties from the United States, exports of pipe products (13% of exports to the United States) remain.
The situation regarding exports of certain types of food products to the United States (15.8% of exports), including butter, honey and juices, is also quite acceptable.
The indirect impact of tariff wars on the Ukrainian economy will be stronger. The obvious consequence of trade confrontations will be a slowdown in economic activity in certain countries - Ukraine's main trading partners, primarily in the eurozone and Central and Eastern European countries, which is likely to lead to a reduction in external demand for Ukrainian products.
At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty is growing, and deglobalization processes are intensifying, in particular due to the rapid escalation of trade conflicts in the world.
