Gold prices, after rapid growth at the beginning of the year and a relatively calm second quarter, will remain at their current level in the third quarter amid continued support factors and in the absence of new shocks, according to analysts interviewed by the Bulletin of the Gold Industry.
The spot price of gold reached a record of $3,500.5 per ounce at the end of April and is currently at $3,350.
"Gold is now in a state of equilibrium — most investors do not predict collapses below $ 3,000, nor rapid growth above $ 3,600 per ounce — they do not expect serious external shocks," said Dmitry Vishnevsky, an analyst at Digital Broker.
According to him, the main players, including institutional investors and central banks, consider the current range as fair, given the balance between geopolitical risks and Fed policy.
The analyst believes that significant trend changes in the coming months are unlikely, but short-term fluctuations are possible.
Oksana Lukicheva, precious metals market analyst at Uralsib Bank, also believes that the current consolidation range is quite stable, although a downward correction to $3,100-3,000 is possible in the future.
"The beginning of the third quarter is traditionally a summer lull, the market usually either consolidates or declines during this period," says Lukicheva. "Everyone is optimistic now, expectations of lower interest rates from the Fed and a weakening US dollar will limit the depth of the fall."
According to WorldGoldCouncil (WGC), gold broke through a key support level last week — the medium-term 55-day moving average. This happened despite the weakening of the dollar and the decline in bond yields, which is a technical signal indicating the potential for a prolonged correction or consolidation of prices.
This is confirmed by the leading analyst of the IC"VELESCapital"You, Ili Danilov:"At the moment, we see that gold has taken a break after a violent rally in recent months and consolidated in the range of $3,300-$3,400." In our opinion, the reason for such a rapid price increase was record global demand in the absence of an increase in the supply of metal.
Currently, the main driver of demand is the escalating military tensions caused by a new round of the Arab-Israeli conflict, as well as the protracted Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. Central banks of developing countries are also making a significant contribution to gold consumption, seeking to make their reserves less dependent on the US dollar and protect national funds from confiscation by Western countries, similar to Russia. An important factor in the increased demand for gold since the beginning of the year
