On Tuesday, aerospace corporation Boeing said the commercial aviation market should fully recover by 2024 after a pandemic recession. As a result, the industry giant raised its forecast for aerospace earnings over the next decade.
Boeing predicted a $ 9 trillion aerospace market over the next decade, up from a $ 8.5 trillion forecast a year ago, according to its annual market outlook report.
“As our industry recovers and continues to adapt to new global needs, we remain confident in the long-term growth of the aerospace industry,” said Boeing Chief Strategy Officer Mark Allen. “We are encouraged by the fact that scientists have created vaccines faster than imagined, and that passengers are demonstrating strong confidence in air travel.”
Compared to last fall's forecast, Boeing now sees an increase in orders for commercial aircraft and aviation services over the next decade, as well as the same level of defense and space demand as previously predicted.
“We've lost about two years of growth,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing's vice president of commercial marketing, at a media briefing. “However, by the end of 2023 or the beginning of 2024, we will see a recovery to pre-virus levels.”
Looking ahead, Boeing said its 20-year growth forecast “remains unchanged,” with passenger traffic growing at an average of four percent per year, higher than the 2.7 percent global economic growth expected during this period.
Boeing expects demand for new narrow-body aircraft by 2040 to be roughly at the same level as the pre-pandemic forecast of 32,500. The company has projected demand for new wide-body aircraft up to 7,500 units for this period, which is eight percent lower than the forecast for 2019.
One of the hottest growth areas is aircraft carrying cargo, including refits. Boeing predicted that by 2040, the world's cargo aircraft fleet will grow 70 percent from pre-pandemic levels, reflecting skyrocketing e-commerce-related demand.