The increase in import duties and other trade protection measures left steel market participants in no doubt about the complex and constantly changing factors affecting global steel prices.
MEPS International is ideally positioned to provide the accurate and reliable forecasts they need to plan ahead and gain a competitive advantage.
The MEP has more than 45 years of experience in researching and analyzing trends in the steel market and the broader economic situation in order to assess their impact on prices for a wide range of flat and long products. Combined with a reliable methodology, this experience ensures a higher forecast accuracy of 90% for an average of 12 months.
How MEPS predicts steel prices
MEPS takes into account a wide range of factors to ensure the accuracy of the price forecasts provided to its subscribers.
One of the key factors affecting steel production is the cost of raw materials for steel production, including iron ore, coking coal, and ferrous scrap. MEPs take into account the cost of gas, electricity and carbon dioxide in their forecasts. In addition, the impact of weather conditions is being assessed.
MEPs also take into account the impact of currency exchange rate fluctuations.
As for forecasts for the production of stainless steel, the analysis of the MEPs extends to the cost of nickel, nickel-plated cast iron, ferrochrome, molybdenum and scrap stainless steel.
However, the cost of steel production is not the only reason for price fluctuations – supply dynamics also play a significant role. MEPs are closely monitoring the supply of steel to markets, whether from domestic producers or through imports.
The cost of imported steel can significantly affect local selling prices, especially in countries where imports account for a significant market share or when import volumes change rapidly.
Trade policy and market impact
Sudden changes in import volumes are often associated with trade policy changes. MEPs are assessing the impact of anti-dumping and countervailing measures, tariffs, quotas and broader trade conflicts that may arise. In addition, his team of forecasters is considering the impact of green trade policies, such as the upcoming EU and UK Carbon Border Regulatory Framework (CBAM), which will come into force in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Other factors affecting shipments include production volumes and equipment delivery times, downtime at the plant, new production facilities being put in place, and changes in inventory levels.
The MEPS study is based on data obtained from buyers and
