The forecasts of the German steel and metalworking industries for the coming months have improved somewhat, according to their representative association Wirtschaftsverband Stahl- und Metallbearbeitung (WSM).
In fact, it's more of a sign that last year's pessimism has waned. While surveys conducted in December and January were similar in their negative assessment of the current state of the business, forecasts for the next six months pointed to positive aspects. In December, 45% of companies still expected a further slowdown in business activity; in January, this share dropped to 33%.
A more recent survey provided by [b]Kallanish[/b] on request confirms this trend is more encouraging. In a March insurance survey, the proportion of respondents fearing further deterioration dropped to 21%.
In 2024, German steel production and metal producers are 6.7% less than in 2023, according to CITES data from the Federal Statistical Office. The order intake figures were even worse: they fell by 13.4% year-on-year in December and 11.5% in January, which seems to indicate a further decline in production in the future.
"There are still some difficult months ahead," says WSM economist Holger Eid. He believes that companies prefer to assume that the market minimum has been reached. One of the positive factors is the coming to power of the federal government, which has promised to support economic development. However, this is happening against the backdrop of an unstable US trade policy that could damage the German economy.
