During the first quarter of 2025, gold prices showed such steady growth that experts became concerned about the upcoming correction and noted signs of overbought prices. Meanwhile, the reasons for investing in the precious metal have expanded.
The new US president, Donald Trump, has brought nervousness and uncertainty to the markets, according to analysts interviewed by the Bulletin of the Gold Industry.
According to the New York Stock Exchange (Comex), gold prices gained more than 20% in the first quarter, breaking through several key psychological levels. On April 1, the price was $3,148 per ounce against $2,638 at the beginning of the year.
COOLING In an alternative scenario, analysts at Finam consider the possibility that the price will move to correction due to accumulated overbought conditions, as gold prices have moved too far away from their long-term trend lines, and previously this always resulted in a decrease in value.
"Gold has been growing for 12 of the last 14 months. At the same time, the price increase in March was about 9%, which is a lot," Finam analyst Alexander Potavin is sure. "We allow the price to return to 2,500 dollars per ounce."
According to him, the quotes are now very overheated not only in the short term, but also in the medium term. Therefore, in the case of a full-fledged correction, gold may go down for several months, which means that the level of $ 3,000 will not stand.
Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company, noted that the $3,000 figure in itself does not mean much, except that there is a psychological barrier of round numbers.
Nevertheless, the fundamental cost of gold production in the world, according to Alfa Capital Management Company, is less than $ 2,500 per ounce, that is, profitability is now very high, which allows for the possibility of price correction in the event of a negative scenario for gold.
Oksana Lukicheva, precious metals market analyst at Uralsib Bank, also noted the likelihood of a price reduction.
"For the second quarter, expectations are still averaging $2,890-2950 per ounce. In April-June, demand is usually seasonally weak, which can put pressure on prices. There is also a possibility that the market will play back the uncertainty after the introduction of US duties and gradually calm down," she added.
Lukicheva believes that right now the markets are under the influence of upcoming changes in trade, and uncertainty is growing. "Plus, Trump is creating chaos with contradictory statements and actions, it feels like he's doing it intentionally. Again, geopolitics remains an important factor, as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have begun to escalate, and Trump's peace initiatives may result in another escalation of tension," the analyst believes.
GROWTH According TO opinion
