Having reached its fiftieth historical high of $4,294 per ounce on October 20, gold lost most of this growth by the end of the month. Despite the pullback, gold ended the month with a gain of 5% at $ 4,012, which was reflected in all major currencies, despite the strengthening of the US dollar, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
The WGC experts' gold yield model explains that October's dynamics were driven by volatility and geopolitical risks, while the reversal was driven by profit—taking and the strengthening of the US dollar.
Technical Analysis The October peak of gold marked an annual increase of 66%, the trend since mid-August has led to historical overbought levels, with the market exceeding its long-term 200-day average price by more than 25%.
"The sharp display of volatility when the price peaked in the third week of October was similar to the peaks seen in 2020, 2022 and April 2025. Combined with the weekly impulse sell signal of the relative strength index (RSI), this indicates that we are witnessing an uptrend that has gone too far and too fast, and a pause/correction is needed to exit the state of extreme overbought," the WGC experts explain.
Since there have been no long-term impulse sell signals so far, experts believe that the October decline may provide a healthy respite within the framework of a long-term uptrend.
The scale of the first key technical support is near $3,800/oz.
When the price reaches this level, we can expect the return of classic buyers on the decline. A longer-term and more important support is seen at the April peak of $3,500, which, if reached, will already be a fall, similar to that in 2020 and 2022.
If the gold price continues to rise, technical resistance levels above the current peak of $4,382 will first be at $4,420 per ounce, then $4,500-$4,520, and then $4,675.
Analogies In addition to traditional technical indicators, WGC analysts have studied historical price analogous moments in the past that look similar to what is happening today, and some traders and commentators intuitively use them to assess future events.
"They are visually convincing, but at the same time illusory, because they are based on too simple a premise, so we checked whether such parallels had any historical connection," the WGC notes.
Commentators usually limit themselves to the four most correlated examples in order to reduce calculation time. When all the analogs point in the same direction, the historical probability of a hit increases. But such cases are too rare to
