American investment bank Morgan Stanley initiated a long position in the Russian ruble against a basket of dollars and euros (50-50), announced on Monday, with the expectation of a 6% appreciation of the Russian currency.
“We believe it is time to return to Russian assets,” analysts from an American investment bank say.
Morgan Stanley said new US sanctions, proposed against the poisoning and imprisonment of opposition politician Alexei Navalny, will not pose a significant risk to Russia's macroeconomic prospects, while the recent rise in oil prices should help the currency.
“We are targeting a 6% increase in the share price, which we estimate is about a 75% decrease in the risk premium,” said Morgan Stanley. "Uncertainty is the US response to cyberattacks, which pose a greater risk and could cause asset price fluctuations, but we think this could be an opportunity to increase risks."
In the oil market, prices are rising on signals of strong demand in China, which has not abated despite new coronavirus outbreaks in the country. Over the past week, Brent crude oil rose 7.8%, WTI - 8.9%.
Fitch has affirmed Russia's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) at BBB. The rating outlook is stable. In 2021, Russian GDP will increase by 3%, Fitch analysts predict, noting that the second wave of COVID-19 affects economic activity earlier this year.