According to the forecast of Fitch Ratings, during the current year the metallurgical enterprises of the PRC will produce a record high amount of steel - 980 million tons, which is 72 million tons more than in 2019. Among the reasons is the active demand from infrastructure and construction.
In other countries, economic stimulus measures turned out to be less effective, so the reduction in steel production amounted to more than 100 million tons. Fitch Ratings forecast for 2020 - 745 million tons of steel, for 2021 - 815 million tons, and the level preceding the pandemic, metallurgists will probably reach by the end of 2022.
"The demand for steel in the Russian Federation in 2021 may increase by 4-6% - against the background of an increase in construction volumes thanks to government support, the implementation of infrastructure investment projects, as well as a gradual recovery of the automotive industry. In the medium term, demand will be constrained, in particular, weak industrial development rates, as well as a reduction in investment by companies in the oil and gas sectors.We believe that the negative effect of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic will be much more moderate, as the government aims to avoid another lockdown ... Russia, which ranks 4th among the largest global steel exporters (22.7 million tons in 2019), increased the volume of external supplies of metal, but in 2021 it will return to normal volumes amid the recovery of sales in the domestic market, which is more attractive in terms of price premium. weak demand and overproduction in Europe and the United States, there is a risk of the introduction of additional trade barriers, "- quotes a review of Fitch IA " Finmarket ".