The European Commission has published a detailed analysis of the global economic consequences of the sharp increase in tariffs in the United States, adopted under the second Trump administration.
According to the study, these measures represent the largest increase in U.
S. import tariffs since the 1930s and have significant implications for both the United States and its trading partners, including the EU.
The report concludes that the US tariffs weaken the American economy rather than strengthen it. Higher import duties increase production costs, as U.
S. industry is heavily dependent on raw materials imports, and reduce household purchasing power. As a result, real U.
S. GDP is declining, inflation is rising, and the Federal Reserve is forced to tighten monetary policy, further reducing domestic demand.
While tariffs are intended to shift demand from foreign goods to American-made goods, they also lead to a significant improvement in the terms of trade in the United States, making American exports less competitive and reducing export volumes. The study concludes that foreigners actually pay only about a quarter of the tariff burden, with the majority coming from American firms and consumers.
The macroeconomic consequences for Europe are moderately negative, mainly due to a decrease in exports from the EU to the United States. At the same time, European manufacturers are gaining market share in third countries, where U.
S. exporters are losing competitiveness due to higher costs and a stronger dollar. However, the EU is facing deteriorating terms of trade, which reduces real incomes.
The analysis also warns that retaliatory tariff measures will lead to increased losses on both sides, while growing financial uncertainty in the United States could increase negative consequences far beyond the direct impact of tariffs.
Overall, the Commission's findings confirm that tariff wars create instability in all global value chains, with serious implications for industrial sectors such as steel distribution, which depend on predictable rules-based trade.
MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE TARIFF INCREASE IN THE USA BY THE EU COMMISSION
