Speaking at the EUROMETAL Steel Day and YISAD Flat Steel Conference held in Istanbul on March 24, EUROMETAL President Alexander Julius stated that the upcoming EU steel trade measures and the Carbon Boundary Regulation Mechanism (CBAM) are expected to lead to higher steel prices in Europe.
According to Julius, the new EU measures, which will replace existing guarantees after June 30, 2026 and come into force on July 1, 2026, will significantly limit supplies. It is expected that the planned halving of import quotas will lead to a unilateral deficit in the market.
High duties are considered as the main barrier to trade
Julius stressed that a 50% duty outside quotas is "indigestible" for market participants. Once import quotas are exhausted, companies importing steel to the EU, including from Turkey, will have to pay the duty in full, which cannot be absorbed or passed on to consumers. He described this as a critical issue for future trade relations, especially given the quarterly quota system, in which importers may face duties at the beginning of the period.
CBAM increases price pressure across the entire value chain
Julius stressed that in addition to trade measures, CBAM is already contributing to higher steel prices in Europe. He noted that this mechanism increases costs not only for European steel producers, but also for importers and end users, as carbon costs are passed down the value chain. At the same time, uncertainty remains regarding emission calculation methodologies and regulatory definitions, which creates additional challenges for market participants.
Steel imports raise concerns about competitiveness
Julius also pointed to the growing influx of steel-based products into the EU, which are often not subject to the same duties, carbon costs or protective measures. This situation is seen as undermining the competitiveness of European production, as companies are increasingly moving production outside the EU and reimporting finished components. According to industry data, the automotive sector accounts for about 40% of such imports.
Turkish Exporters face uncertainty
Julius noted that from the point of view of Turkish exporters, uncertainty among EU buyers remains high due to quota restrictions and the risk of imposing 50% duties. He suggested that an export licensing system aligned with EU quota levels, similar to those used by South Korea and Taiwan, could help stabilize trade relations.
