It is expected that the began tariff wars between the United States and China will lead to a potential excess of American coal proposed in Asia, since it will be redirected from China to other countries of the region.
According to sources, on the first day of the return of the return The market after the lunar New Year on February 5 in China there were almost no offers for fresh sea cargoes from the United States. An additional 15% imported tariff, which comes into force on February 10, in addition to the current 3% tariff, will be “very painful”, sources added.
“Buyers (in China) are faced with a dilemma,” Chinese said trader. “Those who paid for their goods or issued letters of credit may not have other choice, except to pay duties when they arrive. But those who have not yet reached this stage can ask sellers to revise sales. " 1070–1080 yuan per ton in a warehouse in the port of Shandong on February 5 amid the expectations of reduction of Bailey goods to China after the introduction of duties. in the region, and some of them even delayed the goods that were already on the way.
“We ask potential buyers from Malaysia, Indonesia, India, Japan and South Korea to submit applications,” said the Chinese trader holding Cargo from the USA. “However, redirecting the cargo to an alternative destination will entail additional expenses, which complicates the possibility of an immediate offer at a fixed price for the seller,” added trader.
sources in the market note a great probability of potential interest from India and South -Eastern Asia to these goods moving from the United States, given the situation with low marginal steel, which regional steel companies have recently come across.
“If the prices for these goods are quite low, this will really prompt customers to buy here They are instead of non -exposed Australian. This will reduce their expenses, ”said the Indian manufacturer of steel.
Indian buyers noted an increase in the offer of American goods, including urgent, such as BC 7, BC 4, Buchanan and Bailey, from the evening of February 4 after China announced its counter duties.
although it was still not heard about any firm prices of the offer, since the sellers were mostly looking for interested buyers, one of the trade sources calculated that half-dry varieties such as Bailey 'S, can be offered at a price significantly lower than 120 USA per ton of CFR Southeast Asia.
“If Chinese port prices for Bailey ' S are about $ 125 per ton in the equivalent of CFR, then For them, the sale price of less than an additional 15% may well amount to about $ 107 per ton in the equivalent of CFR China, ”said the Chinese trader.
Subsequently, the Australian coal trader considered a probable chain reaction, which would increase the price of price prices Australian coal, since a sudden overabundance of American cargoes in Asia can ultimately lead to “too large amounts of fish in the pond.”
“This is an excess is not a trifle, the US problem is now connected with Australia,” said Trader . “American coal will supplant the demand in Southeast Asia and India, and then the Australian coal will have to return to China, where the prices are low.” American coal will also begin to flow, and hopes to purchase part of American coal with a good discount.
Meanwhile, some traders working with American coal took precautions in anticipation of the situation with the Eye for the Eye, taking into account the eye. that buyers in China have already tried to achieve protective provisions and conditions in order to soften such opportunities, starting from the fourth quarter of 2024.
“We are not delivering anything to China, because everyone already feared duties before the lunar new year, ”said the Chinese trader.
According to Chinese customs, in 2024 China imported 10.7 million tons of coaxing coal from the United States, which amounted to 8.7% of the total imports of the country.
