Analysts are raising the cost forecast for most industrial non-ferrous metals until 2027, with the exception of nickel, which is under pressure from overproduction. Quotations of copper and platinoids support the risks of shortages and supply disruptions from key producers, as well as increased demand.
Illustrative photo: "Norilsk Nickel".
BCS analysts have raised their forecast for the cost of copper, aluminum and platinoids until 2027, having revised down the price of nickel, according to a company review cited by Kommersant. Thus, the forecast for the cost of copper for 2025-2027 has been increased by 4%, to $9.65–10.14 thousand per ton. Expected aluminum quotation levels increased by 6%, to $2.6–2.7 thousand per ton, platinum — by 23-35%, to $1.2–1.3 thousand per ounce, palladium — by 10-13%, to $1.07–1.15 thousand per ounce.
According to BCS forecasts, the cost of nickel in 2025-2027 will be 2-4% less than previously expected. Prices are projected in the range of $15.2–15.6 thousand per ton.
The main reason that has been preventing nickel prices from returning to a steady upward trend for several years is overproduction, experts say.
"The supply on the global market has exceeded demand by about 200 thousand tons over the past two years. 2025 will be no exception. At current prices, Indonesian producers still have low but positive profitability. Thus, production has no incentive to significantly reduce," says Mikhail Shulgin, chief analyst at the Rosgosstrakh Life Investment Analysis Center.According to the expert, in order to increase prices due to demand, an increase in the use of lithium-ion batteries is necessary. But, he adds, the growth driver of the electric vehicle market is China, where many car factories use iron phosphate LFP batteries. If in 2015 the share of batteries with nickel in the cathode chemistry was 96%, then ten years later the figure barely reaches 50%, Mikhail Shulgin cites data.
The negative trends in the market at Norilsk Nickel are confirmed.
Earlier, they predicted that the market surplus in 2025-2026 would decrease by 40-50 thousand tons from 2024 to 120-130 thousand tons. The final value, the company noted, will largely depend on the sustainability of demand for first-class nickel in China and the dynamics of production in Indonesia.
In the copper market, Norilsk Nickel explains, volatility remains, and the price is mainly rising in anticipation of the Fed's rate review (see the material on the Fed's latest decision). In September 2025, there is a tendency to reduce copper reserves, especially against the background of a decrease in production in China by about 5% and the suspension of operation of a large mine in Indonesia, adds Dmitry Orekhov, managing director of the NKR rating agency.
Senior Analyst at the Center for Economic Forecasting
