In the official forecasts of the Ministry of economic development, the growth of net exports provides a 0.3 percentage point aggregate growth of 1.7 percent projected for 2021. By 2024, the growth of net exports has been a 0.7 percentage points of the 3.3% GDP growth in General.
Since the fall in oil prices and the imposition of sanctions in 2014, the Russian export decreased in 2015-2016, and then recovered in 2017-2018. In addition to the recovery in oil prices, in 2017-2018 also grew up in non-oil exports. His drivers were cereals, chemical products and metals. Possibility of saving of chemical products and metals as drivers of growth in non-oil exports depends crucially on the sustainability of global growth.
regional breakdown of the growth of non-oil exports were mainly due to Europe and Asian countries. Further slowdown in these regions may most significantly affect the growth potential of Russian exports. The risks of such developments can hardly be considered insignificant, as in Europe, monetary policy is close to the limits of its possibilities to stimulate growth, while the Asian region is in the midst of a trade war.
the Slowdown in the global economy is affecting Russian exports is quite limited. In the first half of the year exports decreased most significantly in Poland (—$2.6 billion), Germany (—$2.3 billion) and Turkey ($1.5 billion). Germany and Turkey are among the countries that are now experiencing very strong slow, passed in the case of Turkey in the downswing. However, the decline in exports in these areas is largely also due to temporary factors: Poland and Germany have suspended the import of Russian oil after the incident with the Druzhba pipeline, while Turkey is the second largest importer of Russian grain after Egypt.
Current negative dynamics of volume of Russian exports is the result of a combination of systemic and temporal factors. However, as soon as the trade contradictions in the world are becoming more protracted adverse influence of systemic factors may be exacerbated in the foreseeable future.