the Rapid decline in global demand for steel this year will be mitigated by the expected faster recovery in China than in the rest of the world, says published today, the world steel Association (worldsteel) short term Outlook (SRO) steel market in 2020 and 2021.
Association predicts that global steel demand will decrease by 6.4 percent to 1 billion 654 million tons because of the crisis COVID-19. It is expected that in 2021 demand for steel will recover to 1 billion 717 million tons, an increase of 3.8% compared to 2020.
"We expect a significant reduction in demand for steel in most countries, especially in the second quarter. With the easing of restrictions, which began in may, we expect a gradual improvement of the situation, but the recovery path will be slow," said al Ramati, Chairman of the Committee on the global economy, worldsteel.
He also stressed that this forecast is submitted at the time of high uncertainty.
"as soon as the economy re-opens without a cure or a vaccine, there is a significant risk of falling. If the virus will be constrained without the second and third peaks, and if government measures will continue, we can see a relatively quick recovery," said Ramati.
Association expects that Chinese demand for steel will grow by 1.0% in 2020. Also expected to benefit from the infrastructure projects launched in 2020, will maintain and support the demand for steel in 2021.
However, if the global economic environment will have a more profound effect on the recovery of China's economy, Beijing may need to further stimulate the economy, which implies upside risks to steel demand.
In worldsteel believe that demand for steel in developed countries in 2020 will be reduced by 17.1%. Side effects from significant job losses and bankruptcies, weak confidence and the ongoing measures for social distancing assume only partial recovery at the level of 7.8% in 2021.
it is Expected that the demand for steel in developing countries, excluding China, will shrink by 11.6% in 2020, but in 2021 it will increase significantly by 9.2%. While in the CIS economy will slowly emerge from recession. In combination with falling oil prices, the crisis COVID-19 will lead to significant reduction in steel demand in 2020, with a slight rebound in 2021.
the world steel Association (worldsteel) is one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations in the world, which includes all the major countries-producers of steel. The Association represents steel producers, national and regional steel industry associations and research institutes. The participants represent about 85% of world steel production.