In February 2021, consumer inflation on an annualized basis accelerated to 7.5% (from 6.1% in January). On a monthly basis, prices rose 1%. This is evidenced by data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.
Actual consumer inflation accelerated above the forecast trajectory, according to comments of the National Bank of Ukraine. According to the bank, this is primarily due to a more significant than expected rise in prices for certain food products and fuel. At the same time, the growth of inflation was constrained by the introduction of the price cap for natural gas.
“Inflationary pressures will remain significant over the coming months. This will be determined by the effects of last year's lower harvests, higher prices for energy resources, as well as an increase in consumer demand amid economic recovery, ”the NBU predicts.
The current forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine provides for inflation to return to the target range of 5% ± 1 percentage point in the first half of 2022. The updated macroeconomic forecast, in particular the inflation forecast for 2021-2023, will be announced on April 15, 2021 during a press briefing by the decision of the Board of the National Bank.