The USA depends on foreign supplies to meet the demand for metals used in the construction and production of vehicles, technologies and military equipment. Their closest trading partners are also among the main sources of steel and aluminum imports.
according to the US Geological Service, steel consumption in the United States in 2023 amounted to about 93 million tons, while pure imports amounted to 13% of this Demands.
According to the US Department of Trade, last year Canada, Brazil and Mexico were the three largest sources of imports into the country.
the US steel industry is experiencing the worst year from the first term of Trump. National steel plants say that the resumption of import growth is harmful to profit and production.
as for aluminum, metal with a higher cost than steel, then in 2023 the United States consumed about 4 million tons, and pure imports amounted to 44 % of this total. Canada was a source of 56% of aluminum imports, according to the Morgan Stanley study.
Trump said tariffs can help American companies increase domestic production. However, the construction of new capacities will not happen quickly, they say in Morgan Stanley.
“The construction and launch of new melting stoves/factories can take three years or more,” said Morgan Stanley analysts Carlos de Alba and Justin Ferrer in the report this week. “Therefore, any import duties used to metals or extracted products will most likely lead to higher domestic prices for local buyers of these materials.”
Trump told reporters on Friday that the introduction of copper duties will take a little More time than aluminum and steel. The United States again became a clean importer of copper, and foreign deliveries amounted to about 36% of internal demand for refined copper in 2023, according to Morgan Stanley. More than a third of the general import of copper was on Canada and Mexico.
Possible consequences
China, Mexico and Canada are the largest trading partners of the United States, which accounts for a significant share of both imports and export . Chinese imports are already subject to tariffs in accordance with the legislation of sections 232 and 301. However, trade with Mexico and Canada is regulated by agreement between the USA, Mexico and Canada (USMCA), which cancels tariffs for most goods crossing the borders of North America. The implementation of the proposed 25%tariff will not only be a potential violation of USMCA, but will also have a significant impact on the North American supply chains.
Economics of Mexico and Canada strongly depend on trade with the United States. The US market accounts for more than 75% of their total exports. Both countries made it clear that they would respond to US tariffs with mutual measures. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he supports the principle of compliance with tariffs of the dollar per dollar. Meanwhile, Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized the importance of cooperation on the most important issues, including immigration.
For the US steel industry, Canada and Mexico are critical partners, occupying first and third place in the USA in 2024. According to the US Department of Trade, together they provide 35% of all imports in the United States. Companies relying on flat steel rental can suffer especially strongly, since Canada and Mexico supply 42% of all imports of flat rental in the United States. China, which is already spreading significant duties, provides less than 2% of all steel imports in the United States.
Further trade issues of the United States
Although President Trump can postpone the implementation of new trade protection measures that will affect the supply and prices of imported steel, he made it clear that tariffs will be applied in 2025 wider. This plan can be implemented after the deadline of April 1 established for the review of the trade policy of its administration.
The results of the current commercial may have further consequences for steel imports since mid -2025. The US government is studying potential anti-dumping and compensation duties regarding the 10 largest importers with corrosion-standing steel.
Other countries also study trade protection measures. For example, the European Commission is currently reviewing a system of measures to protect imports based on quotas to protect its steel industry. The options under consideration include an increase in the tariff rate for imports exceeding quotas, and the solution is expected by the end of March.
Trade protection is a risk of inflation
If large -scale tariffs are introduced, domestic consumers will most likely see the increase in prices for all goods and services. Inflation in the United States grew by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% in December. If inflationary pressure lasts longer than expected, the federal reserve will not want to reduce interest rates as fast as predicted earlier.
In recent years, the high cost for
